Projected Changes in Annual Temperature and Precipitationin Semi AridRegion (North East of Algeria)

Abstract

-Known for its arid and semi-arid climate, Algeria is highly vulnerable to climate change. There is now a strong consensus that climate change presents a fundamental challenge to the well being of all countries, with potential of being the harshest on countries already suffering from water scarcity. In this communicationwe present the projected temperature and precipitation changes in semi aridregionof Algeria (Setif high plains) between three time slices: 2011-2040 (centered on 2025), 2036-2065 (centered on 2050) and 2061-2090 (centered on 2075). MAGICC–SCENGEN5.3(version2)was used as a tool for downscaling the 4 chosen general circulation models (GCMs) output data. The projections are based on the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Under A2 scenario, The average model prediction of warming is 0.97, 1.75 and 2.88 °C across the three time slices, while the annual precipitation total is expected to reduce from9% to-25.6%. Under B2 scenario, the four models estimate an increase in global temperature, but less than the first scenario. The average model predictionfor thedecrease in precipitation is -5.8%,-9.8% and-14.1% across the three periods.