Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://dspace.univ-ouargla.dz/jspui/handle/123456789/23089
Title: The effect of terms of trade on economic growth in Maghreb countries: Harberger-Laursen- Metzler effect for the period 1990-2017
Authors: Hicham Ayad
Mostéfa Belmokaddem
Keywords: Terms of Trade
HLM effect
Co-Integration
Causality
Issue Date: 2019
Series/Report no.: numéro 19 2019;
Abstract: This study investigates the direct impact of terms of trade on economic growth in Maghreb countries from 1990 to 2017, so as to be able to test the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect, using various econometric techniques for panel data analysis as the modern unit root test PSCADF (2006), the Pedroni and Kao tests for co-integration in addition to Westerlund (2007, 2008) test with bootstrap technique, and finally the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) non-causality test, the results shows that there is no evidence of any co-integration relationship between the variables, and there is a small effect from the TOT index to economic growth whereas any increase in the TOT index by 10% causes an increase in GDP by 0.217%, the results also shows that there is no evidence of any causality from terms of trade to economic growth in contrast of a uni-directional causality running from terms of trade to trade openness, and for the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect (HLM effect) the results reveal a weak effect with economic growth and trade openness in Maghreb countries.
Description: Revue El Bahith
URI: http://dspace.univ-ouargla.dz/jspui/handle/123456789/23089
ISSN: 2437-0843
Appears in Collections:numéro 19 2019

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