GLOBAL STOCHASTIC APPROACH OF ENERGY MARKETS DYNAMIC: MODELING FUTURE OPEC-PLUS STACKELBERG MARKET STRUCTURE 2020-2030

Abstract

This paper attempts to analyze and determine future transformation of OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market structure, whether from fractional equilibrium where the OPEC behaves as an arbitrageur player, or where OPEC-Plus act as compatible in a Stackelberg crude oil market conditions. We provided a factual evidence of global energy market structure until 2030 that should ignore suppliers’ intentions and the potential of OPEC-Plus members cheating in production quotas. We used global dynamic stochastic optimization model (GDSOM) to test the sensitivity of future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market behavior due to demand elasticity rating of full market competition conditions, oligopoly and dynamic stochastic market conditions. Empirical results show that future OPEC-Plus Stackelberg market does not presents synergy in dynamic stochastic crude market conditions, which does not comply with the main research rational hypotheses