Economic analysis to predict the demand for excellent gasoline in Algeria

Abstract

This study aims to predict the demand for excellent gasoline at the National Corporation for the Marketing and Distribution of Petroleum Products (Naftal) Hassi Messaoud- - province of fuel – Ouargla - Algeria, using the Box- Jenkins methodology. We used the time series data for excellent gasoline sales in the period (2006.2016) by applying some statistical tests (ADF, PP) to see the stability of the time series. Moreover, we have used Eviews 9.0 and Gretel 2.0 to estimate the monthly sales of excellent gasoline series by forecasting future sales of 12 months of 2017. The results showed that the appropriate model for excellent gasoline sales is SARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1) 12 model, and the forecasting follows the path of the original series, which confirms the accuracy and statistical quality of the chosen model and also the power of forecasting.