A forward-looking vision for non oil export income- Evidence from Libya during 2021- 2031

Abstract

The Libyan economy mainly depends on oil exports, that made it vulnerable to various shocks, some of them internal, such as the closure of oil fields in 2013 and 2019, and other externalities which represented by the decline or rise up in oil prices, and also, the oil-producing country does not control its prices or its share of its production, so that is made the future of economic growth for countries dependent on it vulnerable to instability. Accordingly, the paper aimed to study the repercussions of non-oil exports on the Libyan economy during 2021- 2023. Therefor, The study approuch relied on the ecnomteics forecasting methods, bu using prioed during 1962- 2020. The results of the study showed that, non-oil exports were characterized by fluctuations during 1962- 1999, then it got better during 2000- 2010, and that return to to the economic decision-maker's by using a more open economic policy, but after the regime changed in 2011, a non-oil exports witnessed a sharp decline, to return its level such as before 2000s levels, so by continue the economic decision-maker following the same current economic policy, Libya's non-oil exports will witness a gradual and unprecedented collapse during 2021- 2031, Which will expose the Libyan economy to more random public spending due to internal and external oil shocks, and also it will make its economic decisions random and dominated by uncertainty, to expand in consumer spending if its prices rise or increase in the selling share and vice versa if it decreased.