Long-run Dynamics and Short-run Adjustments

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze the short-run and long-run relationships between Khartoum Customs Department (DEP) and associated economic variables, including Khartoum International Airport Station (A), Suba Dry port (S), Warehouses Station (W), and Grey free Zone (G) using the ARDL model approach. The study employed an analytical research design using secondary data from the years Jan/2019-Dec/2022. The data was analyzed through unit root tests, lag order selection, ARDL model estimation, bounds tests, error correction models, coefficient analysis, and diagnostic tests. Key findings include Khartoum Customs Department's dependence on past values, both positive and negative influences from Grey free zone on Khartoum Customs Department, and Suba Dry port's and Grey free Zone's significant positive contribution to the long-run equilibrium level of Khartoum Customs Department. The study provides policy recommendations to enhance Khartoum Customs Department's performance and inform policy and decision-making in fields related to international trade and customs management in Sudan. Key words: Khartoum Customs Department, ARDL model approach, Bounds test, Short-run and long-run relationships, Stationarity