Les déterminants de la demande d’importation de blé en Algérie

Abstract

Notwithstanding Algeria's efforts, its wheat imports remain high and continue to increase each year. This trend has inevitable consequences for the state budget and food sovereignty. This article therefore aims to analyse the factors determining the annual volume of wheat imports in Algeria, in order to guide public policy. To this end, a quantitative approach based on econometric analysis was adopted, applying the ARDL model to data covering the period 2000-2023.The results of the study indicate that the factors determining the volume of wheat imports in Algeria, as revealed by the impact analysis, mainly include: GDP per capita, imports of goods and services, the exchange rate, money supply, wheat imports in the previous year, oil prices and, finally, local wheat production. These results reveal that the increase in the standard of living of the Algerian population has a positive impact on soft wheat imports, while most of the national production consists of durum wheat. Thus, the development of soft wheat production is essential to reduce the import bill