تقييم قابلية التوسع لأنظمة الطاقة الكهروضوئية المرتبطة بالشبكة للمباني الحضرية

Abstract

This study evaluates the operational performance and scalability of grid-connected residential photovoltaic (PV) systems in urban Algeria, alongside a rigorous economic feasibility assessment under shifting energy subsidy scenarios. The methodology utilizes dynamic hourly simulations conducted via TRNSYS software over an annual cycle of 8,736 hours. To account for geographic and climatic diversity, three distinct Algerian provinces were modeled—Algiers (coastal), Djelfa (highlands), and Ouargla (saharan)—under a standardized baseline residential load of 19,059.95 kWh/year. Technical assessments demonstrated a proportional variance in solar resource availability. Ouargla exhibited the highest cumulative annual solar radiation at 8,847,438 kJ/m² with an hourly average of 1,012.64 kJ/m².h, followed by Djelfa, while Algiers yielded the lowest resource capacity at 7,764,384 kJ/m². Based on these radiation profiles, two system scaling configurations were evaluated: Scenario 1 (10.92 kWp / 24 Panels): Optimized for self-consumption, this configuration generated between 18,518 kWh/year (Algiers) and 20,027.8 kWh/year (Djelfa). Economically, it proved viable under current subsidized tariffs, yielding a Discounted Payback Period (DPP) of 8 to 9 years and a positive Net Present Value (NPV) exceeding 1.9 million DZD. However, eliminating subsidies extended the DPP drastically to 24 years, highlighting the financial vulnerability of smaller-scale applications to pricing policy shifts. Scenario 2 (18.20 kWp / 40 Panels): Designed for intensive generation and grid injection, annual output peaked in Djelfa at 33,379.71 kWh. Financial sensitivity analyses indicated that highercapacity configurations exhibit robust economic resilience; the DPP ranged from 6 to 7 years under subsidized conditions and only escalated to 8 years upon complete subsidy deregulation, marking it as the optimal long-term sustainable investment. Furthermore, thermal performance analysis indicated that summer ambient temperature spikes in Ouargla induce non-negligible efficiency degradation compared to the more temperate climate of Djelfa. This study concludes that the strategic scaling of urban grid-connected PV systems offers a highly viable techno-economic pathway to lower consumer expenditures and mitigate peak load stress on the national electrical grid