Seasonal concentration of the international tourism demand in Algeria : A measurement and decomposition by nationalities for the period (2000-2013)

Abstract

The aims of this study is to measure and analyze the seasonal variation of international tourism in Algeria according to nationalities, by using statistical and mathematical processing tools from data relating to the number of tourist arrivals every month across the border into Algeria for 14 years extended from January2000 to December 2013and from different nationalities, so that it could be possible to quantify the seasonal variations, and to estimate the relative contribution of different nationalities in the global seasonal concentration and its marginal effects. This may help to develop efficient strategies that reduce the seasonal variation of international tourism in Algeria. This seasonal variation has been in a disparate distribution during all the months of the year. It was focused in the third quarter of each year. This made a one peak pattern which fluctuation according to nationalities.The main results of the research have revealed some disparity in the contribution of different nationalities in the global seasonal focus. The major part of seasonal concentration of international tourism in Algeria is attributed to the market of Algerians residing abroad. Its relative marginal effect was positive in all the years of the study, unlike the market of Arabs and foreigners that was of a negative value. So, concerning the tackling of the seasonal variation of international tourism in Algeria, different endeavours have to be focused and the strategies that enhance the contribution of a majority of foreign and Arab countries exporting tourists in the peak season have to be developed. We have to make more important efforts and develop strategies that must be oriented in priority to the off season of the market of Algerians residing abroad