Prospective Modeling of the Tourism Sector Dynamics in Algeria

Abstract

This study aims to highlight the developments in the economic contribution of the tourism sector to the Algerian economy during the period 1995–2022. It also seeks to build an econometric model to forecast future trends for the period 2023–2027, using a time series approach represented by interpolation models. The study provides a statistical treatment of the available data in order to understand the growth and development patterns of the sector. The results of the economic and econometric analysis reveal a trend marked by slight fluctuations, with an overall outlook indicating a gradual increase in the activity of the tourism sector in Algeria. A noticeable improvement is observed in the economic contribution rate of the tourism sector. However, this improvement has not yet reached the level required to achieve the desired goals, as it remains relatively weak. According to current data and projections, the contribution is not expected to exceed 12% by 2027, indicating a shortfall in government performance in advancing tourism development. This sector is considered a key gateway to economic diversification and has the potential to become a leading driver of local economic integration. Based on these findings, the study recommends the need to explore effective mechanisms to further enhance the tourism sector within the broader economic policy framework, and to activate its role as a source of real economic interconnection. This would contribute to building a sectorally integrated economy in Algeria.