Analysis of demographic trends in marriage and divorce in Algeria (2007-2040) using ARIMA predictive modeling

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to present a thorough examination of Algeria's increasing divorce rate and how it relates to the country's typical marriage patterns. Utilizing trend analysis, simple linear regression, ARIMA models, and Indicator sensivity analysis for scenario simulation, the study combined quantitative inferential methods with data from the National Statistics Office. The results showed that rising divorce rates are indicative of a general decline in the institution of traditional marriage. The transition of marriage from a legally binding social compact to a flexible personal option was governed by two dynamics, according to predictive statistics. The research recommends the implementation of progressive measures, including the establishment of specialized family counseling centers, the development of digital platforms for support, and the implementation of extensive programs for young people getting married. Eventually, it suggests moving to a particular qualitative model. Services and setting up specialized observatories for demographics